Commentary

By Timothy J. Videnka, CFA, CFP® “To know that you do not know is the highest attainment; not to know one’s ignorance is the lowest degree of folly.” Confucius Situational Awareness is an investment firm founded in 2024 by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher. Its investment thesis was built around something that has become […]

By Timothy J. Videnka, CFA, CFP® “I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member” Groucho Marx If you’ve followed the financial news recently, you may have seen that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a new member. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has replaced Verizon in the 30-stock index. Whenever there’s […]

By Michael E. DeMassa, CFA, CFP®, AEP® A couple in their early 60s with 2.4 adult children* came to us with questions we hear frequently from people approaching retirement: When can we retire? When should we start Social Security? Do Roth conversions make sense for us? If you’re wondering how a couple can have 2.4 […]

By Timothy Videnka, CFA, CFP® “In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham Every era has a story so compelling that questioning it seems borderline irrational. Consider society-changing innovations such as electricity, radio, cellphone, internet, smartphone – compelling stories are usually built […]

By Timothy Videnka, CFA, CFP® “All we want are the facts, ma’am.” Sergeant Joe Friday, “Dragnet” Every few years, a new narrative takes hold that sounds dramatic enough to stick: “The world is abandoning the U.S. dollar!” “Foreign buyers are dumping Treasurys!!” “The system is breaking!!!” It makes for great headlines and, given budget deficits […]

By Michael E. DeMassa, CFA, CFP®, AEP® The question isn’t whether Roth conversions are “good” or “bad.” The real question is:  When do they make sense? Recent tax law changes (particularly the SECURE Act) have shifted how we evaluate IRA planning. What used to be a “defer as long as possible” strategy now requires a […]

“For all fund investors, NAV is supposed to stand for ‘net asset value.’ For some, however, it’s turning out to mean ‘not actual value.’” Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal, “When Your Private Fund Turns $1 Into 60 Cents” [December 19, 2025] In this installment of our newsletter, we wade into the ever-murky waters of […]

“At this point, the S&P 500 looks less like a 500-stock index and more like a high-tech holding company with a side order of everything else.” Every decade tells a story and the one told today by the S&P 500’s top 10 holdings might as well be a rerun – on steroids. In 1985, the […]

Q2 2025 Market Commentary by Timothy J. Videnka, CFA, CFP® “The most important question anyone can ask is: What myth am I living?” – Carl Jung In my early twenties, I had the good fortune to land a job as a sales assistant on the bond desk at Lehman Brothers in New York City. It […]

“Economists are often asked to predict what the economy is going to do. But economic predictions require predicting what politicians are going to do – and nothing is more unpredictable.” – Thomas Sowell, American Economist There has been ongoing debate about the impact of import tariffs on inflation. The common assumption is that tariffs lead […]